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Newspaper observation: escorting steady growth stimulates new kinetic energy

——According to GDP data of provinces in the first three quarters

Author: Wu Yuning Source: China Financial and Economic News Published: 2019-11-25

The GDP statistics of the 31 provinces released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the first three quarters of 2019 show that the economic operation of each province is generally stable and progressing. The provinces with a total GDP exceeding 1 trillion have expanded to 25, and the GDP growth rate of 17 provinces has exceeded National level. At the same time, the regional economic development gap has further narrowed, and the trend of catching up with the east in the central and western regions is obvious.

Experts said that the operating conditions of the national economy in the first three quarters reflected the continued efforts of China's steady growth of macroeconomic policies, and the effects of counter-cyclical adjustments gradually emerged, especially the larger tax and fee reduction policies came into effect, which stimulated innovation and growth momentum The regional coordinated development strategy has continued to advance in depth, building a new pattern of China's economic development.

Eastern provinces' economic strength is "stronger"

From the perspective of the total economic volume in the first three quarters, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Hebei, and Fujian ranked among the top 10. Among them, the eastern zone occupies 6 seats, which are Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, and Guangdong; the central zone occupies 3 seats, respectively, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan; the western zone has only Sichuan, which occupies 1 seat. Among them, Guangdong and Jiangsu have GDPs of more than 7 trillion yuan, Guangdong ranks first in the country with 7.72 trillion yuan, and Jiangsu ranks second with 722 million yuan.

It is worth noting that the GDP gap between Guangdong and Jiangsu has expanded to 500 billion yuan, compared with about 240 billion yuan in the same period last year. It can be seen that Jiangsu, the second largest province in the economy, is struggling to catch up with Guangdong. Some analysts believe that in the same period last year, the total GDP of Guangdong exceeded 7 trillion yuan, reaching 7.06 trillion yuan. Guangdong's "stronger is stronger" shows that it has undergone industrial transformation, and the effect of the "cage-for-bird" policy for the layout of high-tech industries has already appeared, thus being able to expand its leading edge in the new normal of the economy.

In addition, Shandong ’s GDP in the first three quarters exceeded RMB 6 trillion for the first time, reaching RMB 6.23 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Zhejiang's GDP also increased from 3.98 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of last year to 4.32 trillion yuan. Lu Wanming, deputy director and press spokesman of Shandong Provincial Statistics Bureau, said that Shandong ’s achievements in economic operation have benefited from the province ’s continuous promotion of the deep integration of the service industry with manufacturing and agriculture in recent years to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the service industry. It has played a role of "stabilizer" and "booster" to Shandong economy.

Regional economic growth potential needs to be fully released

In the first three quarters of 2019, China's GDP was 69.7798 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% at comparable prices. Compared with the national level, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet, Jiangxi, Fujian, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Henan, Hebei, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Ningxia, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Chongqing have outperformed the country in the first three quarters of GDP growth .

Among them, the economic growth of the western region is growing rapidly. The GDP growth rates of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Tibet all exceeded 8%. Yunnan ranked first in the country with a growth rate of 8.8%, and Guizhou and Tibet reached 8.7%. The economic growth of the central region is good, and the GDP growth of the six provinces of Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Hunan all exceeded the national level. The economic growth of the Northeast region has slowed down. Liaoning is the only one of the three provinces in the Northeast to achieve a year-on-year growth rate. Its GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.7%, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jilin and Heilongjiang's GDP growth rankings are relatively low, with growth rates of 1.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

Wang Hongli, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Finance Sciences, said that the economic growth of central and western provinces is generally faster than that of the eastern region, benefiting from the rise of the central region and the full implementation of the strategy of developing the western region. With the successive implementation of a package of policies such as infrastructure construction, industrial undertaking transfer, and optimized use of foreign capital, the economic growth rate in the central and western regions will reach a new high.

In the face of the pressure on economic growth in the Northeast, the relevant person in charge of the Jilin Provincial Statistics Bureau said that the next five major battles will be to promote industrial services, consumer supply, investment growth, investment promotion, and environmental construction, and promote the steady recovery of the economy. Economic and social development goals.

Significant results from both tax cuts and increases

Behind the overall soundness of the operation of the national economy, it shows that the implementation of active fiscal policies has achieved remarkable results. Data show that from January to October, the national general public budget revenue was 1,67704 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year; the national general public budget expenditure was 19,08587 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and the increase rate was higher than the same period last year. 1.1 percentage points. In the first three quarters, a total of 1,773.4 billion yuan of new tax and fee reductions were added nationwide.

From the perspective of Yunnan Province, where GDP growth ranks first, from January to October, Yunnan ’s fiscal revenue and expenditure growth slowed down, and people ’s livelihood expenditures continued to accelerate. The province ’s local general public budgetary revenue was 172.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. The local general public budget expenditure of the province was 569.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. Among them, general public service expenditures increased by 13%; transportation expenditures were 23.8%; agriculture, forestry and water expenditures were 41.1%. Of this expenditure, poverty alleviation expenditures increased by 1.05 times.

Looking at Guangdong Province, which ranks first in terms of GDP, the package of tax and fee reduction policies has continued to push forward, spurring investment and innovation, promoting consumption and employment, and adding strong momentum to high-quality economic development. Data show that Guangdong Province has accumulated a total of 213.1 billion yuan in tax reductions in the first three quarters, of which 68.3 billion yuan in personal income tax relief "red envelopes" have further stimulated residents ’consumption potential, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 8.7%, and total retail sales of consumer goods The year-on-year growth rate was 7.8%. At the same time, the value-added tax reform and inclusive tax reductions for small and micro enterprises encouraged enterprises to increase investment. In the first three quarters, Guangdong ’s fixed asset investment grew by 11.3%, creating a new cumulative growth rate this year.

From the tax data, Guangdong's real economy, private economy, and innovative economy have benefited significantly. In the first three quarters, Guangdong's manufacturing taxpayers shared more than 50% of the deepening of the value-added tax reform dividends; private economy taxpayers shared nearly 90% of the new and reduced tax incentives for small and micro enterprises, and two-thirds of Deepen the value-added tax reform and increase tax reduction; high-tech-intensive industries enjoy the policy of increasing the deduction ratio of corporate research and development expenses, and receive corporate income tax reduction dividends, and the comprehensive tax reduction is particularly obvious.

The director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Finance Sciences, Quartz Hua, said that from the first three quarters of the national economic operation of China and provinces, it can be seen that the implementation of the tax reduction and fee reduction policy has realized the concession of market players' inclusiveness and continued to optimize the market. The entity's balance sheet structure provides effective support for the sustainable development of market entities.

In addition, as of the end of August, China's new local debt issuance accounted for about 90% of the annual increase. Among them, 88.7% of special bonds were completed and 94.5% of general bonds were completed. The advance issuance of local bonds this year has also played an important role in supporting stable investment and stable growth.

How can fiscal policy further play a role in promoting the development of the national economy? Quartz China suggests: First, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures, strengthen budget performance management, and comprehensively improve the efficiency and use of fiscal funds. We will prioritize fiscal funds for wages, operations, and basic livelihoods. Public consumption will drive private consumption, and efforts will be made to strengthen investment in short-term areas to effectively improve consumer spending expectations and market investment expectations. Second, speed up the implementation of central and local income distribution reforms, and alleviate local mid- and long-term fiscal pressures. Innovate the use of asset securitization, resource capitalization and other financing methods, revitalize local stock assets and resources, and fully mobilize the investment enthusiasm of local governments and private capital.

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