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India overtakes the United States? This global contribution rate list has a lot of information

Source: Beijing News Release time: 2019-10-24

总量又到了比拼的时候。 Entering the last quarter of 2019, the total GDP of each country has reached a time of competition. 组织(IMF)的分析数据显示,今年全球经济增长贡献率最高的前20个国家,将在今后5年洗牌。 Analysis data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that the top 20 countries with the highest contribution to global economic growth this year will be shuffled in the next five years.

China will still be the country with the largest contribution to global economic growth by 2024. The United States will be overtaken by India to third place. Japan will be overtaken by Russia to ninth, and Spain, Poland, Canada and Vietnam, which are still in the top 20 contribution list this year, will be replaced by Turkey, Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in five years.

The contribution rate of global economic growth refers to the ratio of the annual GDP increase of each economy to the total annual global economic growth. To put it plainly, it is the change in the global share of GDP and the growth rate .

Undoubtedly, according to the research data of the IMF, after five years, the global economic structure will undergo drastic changes.

China's contribution rate ranks first in the world for 14 consecutive years

According to the GDP growth rate of the first three quarters of this year announced by the National Bureau of Statistics , China's annual average contribution rate to world economic growth will still firmly occupy the first place.

This will be China's first place for 14 consecutive years. This is not new, but it is actually the result of nearly 60 years of hard work.

China's contribution to world economic growth can be divided into three stages.

The first stage was before the reform and opening up from 1961 to 1978. Official figures show that China's average annual contribution to global economic growth is only 1.1%. At that time, Europe and the United States accounted for more than 55%, and played a leading role in world economic growth.

The second stage is from 1979 to 2012, China ’s average annual contribution to global economic growth soared to 15.9%, second only to the United States. Since 2006 at this stage, China's single-year contribution rate has ranked first in the world.

The third phase is from 2013 to 2018. China's average annual contribution to global economic growth has reached 28.1%, firmly occupying the first place. This year, China ’s GDP in dollars will exceed 16% of the world ’s total, approaching 70% of the US ’s total, which is equivalent to about 3 Japan and 5 India. Among them, Hong Kong, China, which has not yet been included in the top 20.

Signs of economic reshuffle have already appeared

Although China's position is solid, according to IMF data, the ranking of its contribution to global economic growth has changed this year.

The top three are China, the United States and India, and Indonesia is in fourth place with 3.9%, surpassing Japan, Russia and Germany. In other economies after Germany, the contribution rate is about 1.4% -1.5%. Vietnam has broken into the top 20 for the first time because it has undertaken more processing and manufacturing in the past two years. These 20 economies contribute 86% to global economic growth, and the aggregate contribution of other economies is 14%.

A closer look at this list reveals signs of a global economic reshuffle.

On the one hand, although the United States is still in second place, its contribution rate is only 13.8%, while India is 13.5%.

The US GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.4% this year. Although India ’s recent economic growth momentum has weakened, GDP growth rate can still reach 6.1%. If the growth rate of the two countries still maintains this " scissor gap ", it will take less than five years for India to surpass the United States.

On the other hand, by region, in addition to China and Hong Kong, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Egypt, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam also entered the top 20. Not only are the European and American countries in the top 20 in number, these economies have also established various forms of cooperation mechanisms with China.

Some of these countries belong to the BRICS countries , some belong to the Shanghai Cooperation Council , and some belong to the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) which will come into effect soon. This is a huge force for maintaining global economic integration.

From this perspective, the signs of the reshuffle of the global economic structure have already appeared.

Don't just look at the contribution rate of global economic growth

Although the trend of shuffling the global economic structure is already obvious, we cannot just look at the list of the contribution rate of global economic growth.

In terms of total GDP, the United States is still the only country in the world with more than 20 trillion US dollars, which is the goal to be pursued.

From a per capita GDP perspective, China will cross the $ 10,000 mark. Even if Japan's contribution rate falls to the ninth place after five years, per capita GDP can still surpass China several times.

In addition, although the proportion of developing economies in the total global economy is constantly rising, the right to speak and to formulate rules on the global economic order still does not match.

To keep up, you need to maintain your advantage. China's GDP as a percentage of the world continues to rise, and the manufacturing sector has contributed greatly. China is the only country with all industrial categories set by the United Nations. In 2007, China's manufacturing added value surpassed Japan, and in 2010 it surpassed the United States. In 2018, manufacturing added value accounted for 27% of the world's total. China cannot follow the old path of Europe and the United States turning into reality and needs to further expand its manufacturing advantages.

Of course, to keep up, we have to make up for the shortcomings. This involves how much reform dividends can really be released. The fuller the release, the higher China's weight in the global economy.

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